Have the Bulls come back to pasture?

There have been considerable amount of articles, views and opinions by the experts, economists and others about the onset of the bull market. Let us examine the economic variables and try to reach a conclusion. Mr. Obama and his team of firefighters are working 24/7 to douse the fire that caused the financial meltdown. Other economies of the world seem to have come to terms with the large scale damage and seem to have dusted themselves and got up to traverse their journey to prosperity. The worst seems to be OVER!

In financial market terms: Whenever there is a consensus about a particular trend then the trend reverses and proves them wrong.

Here we are not talking about a trend but about pessimism. Whenever there is pessimism there seems to be a concerted effort to tighten belts, cut costs and generally be frugal. This frugalty will in turn bring down costs but will also bring in a possibility of entering the downward spiral of the economy.

Here we have a different phenomenon happening. India is on a growth path and is on its own trip. This is a country of more than a billion people with high aspirations and a penchant for savings too. As written earlier we have just redefined the hindu rate of growth at a little over 6% from the 3% growth of the past. This growth and the large base created in the last decade will hold it in good stead and will be able to digest the impending political instability.

As far as India is concerned, the bull market will take some more time to really start, the Indian political climate has to stabilise after the formation of the new government. Untill then the market will be range bound between 3000 and 2500 on the NIFTY.

So the conclusion is that, the bull market is round the corner. Let the tide turn in favour of a stable and viable government to confirm the Bull run.

Welcome OBAMA

Today we brace ourselves to welcome the greatest event in the history of Mankind. A human being of a different colour is being sworn in as the President of a Country ravaged by discrimination on the grounds of colour. This is an unique even for one more reason, the Man who is being anointed as the President of United Sates of America also reflects true internationalism. He is born of an American woman and an African man, not only diverse in colour but also diverse in citizenship. Apropos! to the citizens of USA for electing the true American Spirit as their flag bearer for the next four years. Another unique thing is happening in these times, All this while a drastic change in the leadership would happen after a large crisis / catastrophe or a revolution. But here we see a slow churning and a slow revolution happening, a drastic change in leadership has come about after a smooth sailing for the last sixteen years for the economy. When Obama was declared elected, the economic fallout of the financial crisis was not yet fathomable.
Now, lets get back to business. Obama has his task cut out for the next two years at least. He has to grapple with failing corporations, there will be a strong appeal for reinstating the Glass Steagall Act, which separated the Investment Banks from the commercial banks. Isn't it curious that after the great depression the Glass Steagall Act effected a separation of commercial banking and investment banking. This act was repealed in 1999 and after the sub-prime crisis the same thing is being undone by allowing investment banks to be treated as commercial banks by giving them access to federal reserves funds and the discount window of the fed.
Next on the agenda will be the choice to bail out corporation or individuals. If the corporations are bailed out will the effect trickle down to individuals? Wouldn't it be practical and better to bail out those in individual debt traps and not bother about the corporations? if corporations are bailed out then it will be assumed that you need to become BIG and make BIGGER mistakes to be bailed out. small (individuals and companies) and smaller mistakes (which actually wipe out the individuals and the small companies) will be left to fend for themselves.
Obama regime will also have to think again about the uni polarity of the world. Due to which a great responsibility has been thrust upon the white house. Since there is no visible counterweight to the power of America, a hegemonisitc attitude will jeopardise the delicate balance and may result in America against the world. To take a leaf out of Obama's professed idol and quote "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely" will not only hold good for individuals but for countries too. So this appeal to Mr. Obama and his regime to understand the the will of a majority of people of the world and also understand that their mandate now is to provide leadership not only to their country but to the world as a whole.
Welcome Mr. Obama, may your tenure be remembered as a path breaking tenure, which would need to "sarve jana sukhino bhuvantu" meaning let all be free and therefore happy.