In fact, I heard a nice joke the other day. Somebody said that Nifty has made a Ghazini pattern. It forgets where it is going after every fifteen minutes.
There is a lot of bad news for the Nifty to do anything good. Inflation is still very high and we have negative real interest rates in Indian markets. Most of our friends (and experts) expected the dollar to be at Rs.42 by the year 2010 and they even went on TV to boast about it (in fact one very learned "Professor" grilled me hard about this issue when i said that the dollar would reach Rs.48 and of course made fun of me) I only pray to the good lord and ask HIM to forgive the Professor for he knows not what he did:)
With negative interest rates, the FIIs will slowly start realizing that they are not making money anymore and losing due to the depreciating Rupee. I am categorically saying it again that the Rupee is expected to depreciate up to Rs.50 per dollar and you can expect FIIs to take a walk from the Indian markets for a short time.
The reasons for the fall in the markets will be the usual suspects (from the media viewpoint) lukewarm budget, inflation, scams and any other new "NEWS" they can find. but the writing on the wall is very clear. NIFTY at 4900.