Wednesday, 22 October 2008

Where is the Bottom for the markets?

I have been flooded with calls on "where is the bottom for the markets?" frankly I believe the bottom should be anywhere between 2600 to 2800 for the nifty. If that means another 10% fall, so be it. But can you really catch the proverbial knife? It is better to start picking and choosing your investments from now onwards. a cursory look at the indices and a comparison of the prices of the stocks with their 14th June 2006 levels reveals a very interesting story. Only the reliance family, Infrastructure stocks are higher than those levels rest all are beaten down to lower levels. If this is not the opportunity to buy then when is it time to buy?
On Indices I would like to remind about the famous Samuelson "Indices are prepared by a committee which looks for the popular stocks and unpopular ones are eased out of the calculations, making the indices go up when the constituents are going down." So, whats the moral of the story? Start buying ETFs on the nifty (NIFTYBEES) and accumulate slowly. That will mirror the growth in the indices in the next bull run. All of us have a chance to participate in the next bull run as this bearish phase will be painful and long drawn up to the end of June 2009 when the new government takes over in India. Regardless of the colour of the government, the freshness of the incumbent will lead to better and clearer thinking on the policy front and may be, we will find the same policies continued forward as new initiatives. Nevertheless they will be from a new face in the Government and therefore will have a good feel about them.
So, start accumulating stocks for the next nine months and be ready to participate in the next bull run.

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