Friday, 15 May 2009

Waiting to Exhale

The Great Indian Election Drama of opposing postures is coming to an end tomorrow. All those who thought that the third front and the UPA are different will be in for a rude shock when they will muster all their might to come to power and bury their so called differences under the carpet of secularism.
If you notice the election campaign this year, there were four formations.
1. The United Progressive Alliance: which was not united at all and a splinter went up to forming a fourth front. The alliance was characteristic of unabashed sycophancy and unbridled faith in the first family of India. This alliance also made last ditch efforts to salvage its well wishers by using the CBI to give clean chit to all the well wishing offenders. You must notice one fact that majority of parties forming a part of this front have a common last name i.e. Congress and they root for a common last name too. i.e. Gandhi.
2. The National Democratic Alliance: which was non democratic to say the least. This alliance brought up non-issues when the real issues were not received well by the public. They understood late in the campaign that short and direct television campaigns without the "creative" was the order of the day. They have still not understood that they have to become an inclusive party and not an exclusive party to come to power. Here inclusive means more members and keeping the doors open for new members. Now that the contentions of Article 370, Ram Mandir and Uniform civil code have been kept in the deep freezer there is actually no ideological difference between the two national parties.
3. The Third Front: Means a bunch of regional satraps broken away from the congress of yore. these parties are really drifters with the only aim to get into power. They prefer to call themselves more secular than the Congress or the UPA and they also profess to speak for regional aspirations. Their slogan is to oppose congress in the states and truck with the congress in the centre.
4. Fourth Front: This is a group of parties broken away from all the three fronts with the USP of being away from the congress, the NDA and the Third Front. they would like to jump to the highest bidder post results.
I had not blogged for a long time because of the "Aachar Sanhita" which i had imposed on myself, so that my clouded political views should not add to the political confusion in the minds of the readers.

Now that the elections are over and the ban on exit polls has been removed, Amateurs like me can hazard a guess as to what will happen to the results. I am Hazarding this guess just for the heck of it and my guess is going to influence my strategies in the market.

Now for predictions: I think the house will be evenly divided between three fronts. if you combine the third and the fourth fronts. Left parties will gain enough seats so that they cannot be ignored in the formation of a government. I think all "secular" parties will come together to form the new government and probably this formation will also be given a new name as UPA will not be acceptable to come constituents (probably because of the word PROGRESSIVE in it!). This formation will lobby hard for the leadership of the government and a new face will emerge as the contender for the PM's post. It will be either Pranab Mukherjee or P Chidambaram. Congress would not give away the PM's post at all. If congress is forced to give away the PM's post then they will not participate in the government and will lend support from the outside only to pull the rug in the next Eighteen months. So, it is certain that it will be a congress led government without Dr. Singh as the PM and Left parties participating in the government.
Now for the markets. As I had written in my previous post the Nifty lingered around the 3600 mark until the election results and now it will take a decisive turn. If the Left parties form a part of the government then brace yourself for Nifty touching 1760 and if they do not participate in the government then it would be 4250 and beyond.
So all eyes on KARAT / BARDHAN/ YECHURY.

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